• September 26, 2024

Who Will Win the U.S. Presidency in 2024?

Philip Kotler

Predicting the winner of a U.S. Presidential election is especially hard in this election year. The candidates are running close to 50–50 and the voting groups are highly polarized. The two candidates have extremely different views of what would make America great again.

I choose not to make a prediction.

However, I want to vote. If this election took place in Australia, I would have to vote or pay a fee for not voting. Furthermore, I would have to rank my candidate preferences if there are three or more candidates.

But as an American citizen. I want to vote. Also, I am largely an independent voter. I am not a one-issue voter although this would make it easy. For example, if I cared only about abortion, I would vote for the candidate who favors abortion.

I would want to consider all the policy differences between the two candidates. I want to imagine the economic, social and political outcomes that are likely to follow from each of the two candidates.

I would like to list the outcomes that I expect upon the election of each candidate.

I stand ready to revise my views. In fact, I invite the reader to look at my two lists. Feel free to add missing outcomes or change the wording of outcomes.

Here are my lists:

What will happen if Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidency?

1. Economic chaos as higher prices result from Trump’s rising tariffs and trade policies

2. Cutbacks and/or elimination of Social Security, Medicare, and the possible repeal of Obamacare

3. Social chaos with increased violence towards minorities, workers, and union organizers

4. Political arrests targeting opponents (Trump said anyone criticizing the Supreme Court should be jailed)

5. Government appointments not based on merit but ideology (government employees will be purged unless they are loyal to Trump)

6. Fewer dependable allies from abroad as NATO (and the EU) is abandoned; China becomes stronger as Taiwan is abandoned

7. Russian power increases as Ukraine is left to itself

8. Climate problems worsen — pollution regulations are eliminated; drilling allowed in National Parks

9. Polarization and hatred worsen as forced deportation is scaled up

10. Leadership focuses on past grievances — including personal vendettas

11. Possibility of mental deterioration of Trump after election — leading to the installation of JD Vance as President

12. Women lose their reproductive rights, and other civil rights as well

13. More tax cuts for the rich and corporate interests, leading to further deficits (military programs to increase at the expense of everything else)

14. Increase in Christian Nationalism and intolerance for other faiths

15. Implementation of Project 2025 and abandonment of constitutional boundaries

If Kamala Harris wins the election:

1. Lower prices as Inflation continues to fall; corporate price-gouging is dissuaded

2. Major job creation with new factories and new investments in renewable technologies

3. Higher taxes on the super-rich and corporate profits to support better health and education — this funds Social Security and eliminates austerity measures

4. Strong dependable allies abroad — NATO is supported to create a better, secure future

5. More progress in controlling climate problems — investment in renewables and battery technologies

6. Her international experience will further peacemaking to reduce international disputes

7. Union support instead of opposition and more worker benefits including a higher minimum wage

8. Less polarization and more goodwill amongst the general population; opposition to the culture wars

9. Leadership is younger and motivating for younger generations

10. Women’s rights are secured nationally and across states; abortion rights are strengthened

11. Church and state are kept separate and America embracing a culture of respect

12. Increased regional investments in Latin America to encourage residents to remain in their home countries

13. Support for a two-state solution regarding Israel and Palestine

14. Support for job-creation through small business and start-up incentives

15. Corporates and billionaires pay a fairer share of taxes

Does this comparison of likely outcomes help you choose your candidate?