November 10, 2024
What Should Democrats Do to Win the Next Election?
Philip Kotler
The American political system needs two healthy political parties. The one in power is likely to make mistakes, and the other party points out these mistakes and wins the next election. Hopefully, neither party collapses because that would end democracy in America.
What was so scary about the Republican campaign was Trump’s talk about getting vengeance by jailing leading Democrats. Having one party in power too long would end up converting our democracy into a dictatorship.
The task of the Democrats is to reformulate their policies to win back Latinos, blacks, more women, and hopefully some white men who voted for Trump. Instead of the Democrats just making some tactical changes, the Democrats need to define their strategic positioning. The Democrats need to remain the liberal party. But they need to regain the trust of the working class. The working class, in their exit interviews, said that Democrats were too elitist and talked about many issues and policies that didn’t touch their interests. Their interests were the economy, religion, family, illegals and peace and much less climate change, colleges, social justice, war and more abstract ideas.
Let’s acknowledge that the Democrats lost the 2024 election by making some basic mistakes. The party hastily selected Kamala Harris to be their candidate. There was no attempt to put candidate selection to a vote by the party. Time was short and selecting a candidate was urgent. Once selecting Kamala Harris, the party had to work fast to help the public know Kamala Harris. Harris also was slow in saying much in early interviews, suggesting that she had the same policies as Joe Biden, a President who at that time had one of the lowest approval ratings. Further Kamala Harris is a woman of color which did not appeal to racists, misogynists, or both. America was probably not ready for mixed race female black President.
Nevertheless, Harris deserves congratulations for producing a brilliant campaign given the pressures of time and prejudice. She grew more articulate and drew growing audiences and received growing applause during this short voting period. Many Democrats began to feel that she would be a winner. My friend, a futurist, predicted that Harris would win the Presidency, the House and the Senate. The shock that she lost all this by a landslide was so deep and wounding that everyone wondered why the pollsters had been so wrong in predicting a tight race.
The Presidential election in 2028 will leave the Democrats free of these liabilities. First, the American public will have lived through this second Trump period. Trump will either achieve an impressive record — having ended two wars, producing a growing economy, removing illegals and blocking new illegals — or he would have self-destructed through acts of vengeance, severe price inflation, and further tax cuts for the rich, thereby increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Donald Trump has one wish, to be seen as a great President. If he did the right things, this could happen. Otherwise, future historians might rate him as the worse President of all our 47 Presidents.
How Should the Democratic Party Position Itself?
The Democrats need to choose between two broad positionings of the Democratic party. The first is to accept the voters judgment that the Republicans had chosen many policies that won over 80 million voters. Ending the wars, reducing illegals, and reducing government waste should be Democratic party objectives as well. Here the Democratic party agrees to work with Trump Republicans and exhibit goodwill despite their defeat. This would make it easier to attract back some lost working-class voters. The second is to fight and block the Trump Republicans at every turn. This is tempting but would be less likely to win any of the lost working-class voters and would show democrats as petty and not putting country first.
In the meantime, the Democrats need to highlight the issues and policies they most care about. Here is the list that Democrats presented to their voters:
Better healthcare
Less voter suppression
More racial inequality/civil rights
More women’s rights (especially the right to an abortion)
Less climate change (by reducing the use of oil and gas for energy)
Stronger curbs on guns and gun violence
Reduced student debt
Stronger social security
Helpful foreign policy with our allies
Supporting democracy around the world
Looking at this list, which policies will Trump Republicans most likely oppose?
The first is climate change. If anything, Republicans are intent on protecting and increasing the use of oil and gas. Many Republicans claim that climate change is a hoax and is keeping them making huge profits. We can expect to see bitter fighting on climate change proposals by the Democrats.
The second is woman’s right to abortion. Some Republicans say that the fetus has personhood from the moment of birth and they see abortion as the killing of a human being. This issue will produce unabated conflict for many years and left to the separate States to decide.
The third is gun control. Republicans believe that everyone has a Constitutional right to own a gun and are pressing in some cases to be free to carry their gun in public and maybe even in schools and public offices. Here the Democrats must aim at (1) better methods of preventing guns from getting in the hands of dangerous people and (2) preventing the sale of rapid-fire guns such as AR-15 semi-automatic rifles. While the Democrats would press for new national laws, most states will end up deciding on how much gun control they will accept.
The fourth is Social Security. Republicans believe that the U.S. government has overdone public welfare with Social Security, Medicare and other “nanny” programs whose cost has increased the ratio of debt-to-GDP to crisis levels. Republicans complain that too many Americans prefer receiving handouts of money and goods without working for them. Much conflict will occur during this four-year period on how much welfare to allow.
The fifth is foreign policy with our allies. Republicans base their campaign on “America First.” Trump has sanctioned our allies for not absorbing more of the cost of keeping peace in the world. They see American citizens as being overtaxed for supporting foreign governments that should assume more of the cost. Here Democrats might soften their opposition to the Republican sanctions.
Strategies for the Democratic party to Win Back Lost Voters
The first need is for the Democrats to find a strong and impressive Presidential candidate for the 2028 election. The primaries will be run for this purpose. If Democrats continue to favor highly educated and elitist candidates, they won’t win working class votes. Ideally, they need a Presidential candidate who grew up in the working class, comes from the South or Middle West and is full of personality and charismas. He should have strong military experience and good political experience.
The second need is to more deeply understand working class voters. Distinguish the issues facing farmers and the policies that would win them over. Identify the issues facing factory workers and the policies that would make their work lives safer and more prosperous. Third, identify those working in mines or in gas fields and the problems they face. Start going into specific occupations such as secretaries, accountants, police and firemen, etc. The whole approach uses market segmentation and produces an effective campaign for each segment.
The third is to find a way of symbolizing what the Democratic party is about. The Trump Republican party chose “America First” and it is accompanied by many policies on this theme.. The Democratic Party could be “Workers and Family First” to make it clear that making workers and their families better off is more important than making the rich better off. The Democratic party has historically been the party favoring trade unions and better working conditions and the appeal “Workers and Family First” can be effective.
Conclusion
The 2024 Presidential reelection of Donald Trump elated 80 million American voters and brought fear and depression to 60 million American voters. The first group saw Donald Trump as a conservative savior and in some cases, a God-like figure. The second group saw Trump as a potential dictator and destroyer of America’s Constitution and democracy. The actual outcome will be shaped by the actions of Trump and the actions of the Democratic party. Trump has the dream of going down in history as a great American President. The potential is there if Trump makes the right decisions about women’s rights, climate change, gun control, war, immigration, welfare and foreign affairs. The potential is also there if the Democratic party decides to support Trump in making the right decisions. However, knowing Trump and knowing the Democratic party, the chance of future historians rating Trump as a great President has a very low probability.
